Sat, Feb 23, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 010 | 416 | 539 |
| CAR | 011 | 012 | 211 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54TBLMarc-Andre BergeronUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 2:11TBLBenoit PouliotAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 3:04CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Riley Nash, Chad LaRose · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:37TBLRichard PanikGWGAssists: Adam Hall, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 7:55TBLTom PyattAssists: Alex Killorn, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 16:11CARChad LaRoseAssists: Bobby Sanguinetti, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 17:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Cory Conacher, Sami Salo · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:42CARAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27CARJoe Corvo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:35TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:41TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:38CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Welsh
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot7:13
xG 0.59–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher8:55
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Panik2:29
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Killorn7:11
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Carle12:44
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Lee8:26
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman9:32
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Staal2:28
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wallace – Nash4:27
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- LaRose – Westgarth – Welsh2:41
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty8:19
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Faulk8:21
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Sanguinetti – Jordan8:35
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Murphy2:08
xG 0.00–0.28 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).