Thu, Feb 28, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 13 | 08 | 014 | 125 |
| NYR | 220 | 115 | 17 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:40NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:09TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Eric Brewer, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:08NYRMarc StaalPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
- P3 18:27NYRRick NashAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:07TBLMatt Carle: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:46TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:46NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:09NYRSteve Eminger: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:27TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 3:53TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 14:17TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:58NYRDan Girardi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stamkos – Conacher7:50
xG 0.91–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Killorn3:00
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot4:18
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pouliot – Purcell7:11
xG 0.22–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Hedman14:45
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Lee4:56
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Lee2:40
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Callahan – Stepan12:23
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Nash – Hagelin10:05
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Boyle – Miller7:44
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash2:14
xG 0.05–0.29 (13%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto2:59
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi16:00
xG 1.07–0.31 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh12:05
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).