Thu, Feb 28, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 311 | 05 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 425 |
| FLA | 29 | 016 | 114 | 04 | 0 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Steve Ott, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:00BUFTyler EnnisPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 14:24FLADrew ShorePPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 15:20FLAMarcel GocAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Jack Skille · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 16:46BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Steve Ott, Mike Weber · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:34FLABrian CampbellAssists: Marcel Goc · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 3. FLA Peter Mueller stopped
- 4. BUF Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:47BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:51FLADrew Shore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43BUFAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 19:48FLATomas Kopecky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:25BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P3 5:25BUFAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:33BUFAdam Pardy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Kaleta – Scott – Grigorenko2:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Porter – Kaleta2:52
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Ennis12:37
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson12:05
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Myers17:41
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Pardy – Weber11:15
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera17:29
xG 0.63–1.09 (37%)attempts 15–20goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Fleischmann – Skille11:08
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau12:16
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli2:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Matthias10:29
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Kulikov3:28
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kuba – Campbell5:07
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan10:11
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).