Sat, Mar 2, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 25 | 08 | 09 | 222 |
| BOS | 07 | 29 | 111 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:32TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:38TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 3:22BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, David Krejci · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 4:39BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Adam McQuaid, Daniel Paille · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:44BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:11BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:45BOSGregory Campbell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:45TBLKeith Aulie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:46BOSAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:57TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:45BOSDennis Seidenberg: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:12TBLKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P1 19:51BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:04TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:44TBLB.J. Crombeen: Elbowing5 min
- P2 4:44BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:29TBLVincent Lecavalier: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:28BOSJay Pandolfo: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:49BOSAndrew Ference: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:46BOSDougie Hamilton: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:21TBLBrendan Mikkelson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos2:14
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie4:33
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Killorn2:05
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher4:11
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lee – Aulie2:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Aulie8:52
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Lee – Mikkelson5:15
xG 0.03–0.21 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin8:21
xG 0.77–0.14 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:04
xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Paille – Peverley5:51
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Campbell – Bourque4:21
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk6:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk5:42
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid5:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).