Sat, Mar 2, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 113 | 25 | 00 | 0 | 331 |
| BUF | 06 | 18 | 27 | 02 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:17BUFJason PominvilleSHAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mike Weber · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:24NJDSteve BernierAssists: Ryan Carter, Mark Fayne · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 1:21NJDAdam HenriqueSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 3:10BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Cody Hodgson, Steve Ott · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:47BUFJochen HechtAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 11:22NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Stefan Matteau, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jason Pominville scored
- 2. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 4. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:27BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:27NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:50NJDSteve Bernier: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:07BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:59BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:59NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:24BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 1:53BUFKevin Porter: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:02BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:14BUFJason Pominville: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00NJDRyan Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:03NJDAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:37NJDMarek Zidlicky: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:35NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Loktionov – Matteau6:35
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Henrique4:35
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter8:45
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Henrique – Butler3:47
xG 0.01–0.14 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky10:48
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson11:17
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Salvador – Fayne14:30
xG 0.32–0.58 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Stafford – Grigorenko4:42
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ott – Pominville – Hodgson7:44
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Porter – Kaleta – Flynn7:04
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Ennis – Foligno4:55
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Pardy2:46
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Pardy – Weber11:57
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera9:58
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).