Sun, Mar 3, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 114 | 15 | 07 | 0 | 230 |
| NYR | 07 | 09 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:04BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 3:35NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 4:18NYRRick NashPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 8:19BUFNathan GerbeSHAssists: Steve Ott · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Rick Nash scored
- 2. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 3. NYR Ryan Callahan scored
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:05NYRStu Bickel: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:50BUFAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P2 16:47NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:55BUFAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28BUFPatrick Kaleta: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P3 3:28BUFPatrick Kaleta: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:03NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:26NYRRick Nash: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:54NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Stafford – Grigorenko6:13
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Ennis9:30
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Porter – Kaleta – Flynn8:46
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Hodgson – Foligno7:32
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Weber2:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pardy – Weber9:44
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera13:40
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Callahan – Stepan9:49
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Boyle – Miller4:59
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan3:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash3:45
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto5:50
xG 0.70–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi12:51
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh3:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).