Tue, Mar 5, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 016 | 318 | 340 |
| CAR | 112 | 112 | 24 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:17CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Bobby Sanguinetti, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 0:25BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–2
- P3 1:15CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:33BUFTJ BrennanPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:13CARAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 19:25BUFCody HodgsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:17BUFRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:30BUFCody Hodgson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 14:29CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:30CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:19CARJamie McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46BUFThomas Vanek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Foligno – Flynn11:13
xG 1.13–0.09 (93%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson10:38
xG 0.92–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Grigorenko9:06
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Ennis11:38
xG 0.21–1.07 (17%)attempts 5–23goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers13:35
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 1–1
- Weber – Brennan10:34
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Nash8:58
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Sutter – Westgarth – Bowman6:22
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:24
xG 0.63–1.18 (35%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Wallace – Skinner9:59
xG 0.19–0.83 (19%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti11:58
xG 1.00–0.08 (92%)attempts 23–5goals 2–0
- Corvo – Gleason15:54
xG 0.87–1.26 (41%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk17:29
xG 0.27–1.78 (13%)attempts 6–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).