Wed, Mar 6, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 111 | 318 | 443 |
| TOR | 210 | 114 | 24 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:20TORJay McClementAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 1:20TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 2:48OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Erik Condra, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 1:40OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.39 xG2–3
- P3 3:42TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 10:18TORNazem KadriGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 12:08OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 18:03OTTColin GreeningAssists: Erik Condra, Andre Benoit · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:26TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:26OTTDave Dziurzynski: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:59OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P2 9:42TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:19OTTMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Smith7:18
xG 0.82–0.10 (90%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Neil – Stone – Zibanejad7:14
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris4:22
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Greening – Turris – Silfverberg9:07
xG 0.38–1.74 (18%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch11:39
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 23–5goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips2:42
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Phillips – Benoit13:24
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Komarov – Kadri11:06
xG 1.44–0.45 (76%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:47
xG 0.91–0.44 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Orr – Steckel – McLaren3:57
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin14:00
xG 0.66–0.85 (44%)attempts 6–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser15:04
xG 1.72–0.75 (70%)attempts 18–24goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Kostka16:15
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer16:37
xG 0.59–1.59 (27%)attempts 12–32goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).