Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 111 | 15 | 224 |
| NYI | 112 | 114 | 319 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:46NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:26WSHMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Joel Ward, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:03NYICasey CizikasAssists: Matt Martin, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:09WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Troy Brouwer, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:13NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.39 xG2–3
- P3 12:43NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 16:59NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:23WSHSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:48NYIRadek Martinek: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 6:58WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P3 8:48WSHMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:48WSHMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:35WSHJeff Schultz: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 16:50NYIColin McDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:18NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ribeiro – Hendricks – Ovechkin12:50
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Crabb – Wolski – Perreault5:42
xG 0.44–0.77 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fehr – Brouwer – Backstrom12:19
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle8:14
xG 0.44–0.98 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Kundratek9:16
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kundratek2:26
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Oleksy2:35
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:02
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:47
xG 0.97–0.64 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Reasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom5:15
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares11:03
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey13:20
xG 1.39–0.31 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Martinek – Streit14:51
xG 1.03–0.80 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:22
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).