Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 313 | 112 | 013 | 03 | 2 | 541 |
| TOR | 15 | 211 | 15 | 05 | 0 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36PITJames NealAssists: Matt Niskanen, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:14TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:31PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Beau Bennett · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 15:21PITPaul MartinAssists: James Neal, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 10:12TORCody FransonPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 13:01PITPascal DupuisAssists: Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 14:01TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 15:40TORPhil KesselAssists: Mark Fraser, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. PIT James Neal scored
- 3. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:02PITBeau Bennett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:56TORKorbinian Holzer: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:17TORMichael Kostka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:55PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:23TORCarl Gunnarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:50TORNazem Kadri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:13PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Neal – Bennett10:13
xG 0.99–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:39
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Jeffrey3:51
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:20
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin14:24
xG 0.92–0.08 (92%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Orpik – Engelland2:31
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang15:21
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- MacArthur – Frattin – Kadri10:52
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin3:22
xG 0.04–0.40 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin9:02
xG 0.06–0.50 (11%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:37
xG 0.30–1.00 (23%)attempts 14–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser5:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Holzer5:58
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Holzer6:33
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).