Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 010 | 16 | 220 |
| PHI | 212 | 110 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31PHISimon GagnePPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Ilya Bryzgalov · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:47PHIMax TalbotSHAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:43BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Kevin Porter, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 0:17PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 4:32BUFJochen HechtSHAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:29BUFRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:24PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:54BUFMike Weber: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:54BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 15:54BUFMike Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:54PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:15BUFJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:01BUFJochen Hecht: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:46BUFTJ Brennan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:48PHIZac Rinaldo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:48BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:48BUFSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 2:11PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P3 2:11PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:01BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:15PHILuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Foligno – Flynn7:29
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hecht – Ott – Stafford3:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Ennis2:34
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson9:26
xG 0.45–0.89 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Brennan2:29
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera9:23
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers12:35
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn6:52
xG 0.75–0.04 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:29
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gagne – Read – Couturier8:05
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Rinaldo6:46
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn10:12
xG 0.85–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann13:19
xG 0.78–0.49 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Schenn2:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).