Tue, Mar 12, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 23 | 03 | 17 | 313 |
| FLA | 017 | 213 | 09 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Martin St. Louis, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:48TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Alex Killorn, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 0:13FLAKris VersteegAssists: Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:24FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 5:30TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:50TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:36FLAFilip Kuba: Interference2 min
- P1 10:20TBLSami Salo: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:32TBLAlex Killorn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:44TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:53FLAErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Malone – Crombeen – Stamkos2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson2:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher2:45
xG 0.05–0.10 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos4:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carle – Gudas5:02
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman12:03
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Aulie – Gudas6:19
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau10:23
xG 0.76–0.21 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Skille – Matthias12:35
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli5:00
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Versteeg8:35
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Strachan2:13
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson15:05
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Kuba – Strachan15:52
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).