Sat, Mar 16, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 315 | 06 | 13 | 434 |
| BUF | 210 | 09 | 113 | 04 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52BUFMike WeberAssists: Ville Leino, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:16BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Jordan Leopold · Slap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 4:03OTTPatrick WierciochAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:14OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Jim O'Brien · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:57OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 12:06BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:54OTTKyle TurrisPPGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:55BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49BUFCody Hodgson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:08BUFNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:08OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:52OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:52BUFSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:44OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:45BUFRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:45OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:56OTTErik Condra: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 16:25OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:16BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Silfverberg – Zibanejad4:32
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Regin – Kassian – O'Brien2:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Smith4:09
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris9:21
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba17:25
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Benoit – Methot7:32
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Wiercioch3:18
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Stafford – Gerbe8:33
xG 0.50–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Porter – Foligno – Flynn10:09
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis11:21
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson9:42
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers14:30
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Leopold – Weber9:44
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Leopold – Myers2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).