Sat, Mar 16, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 111 | 39 | 526 |
| VAN | 116 | 09 | 110 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:06VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:08DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:57DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 1:20DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 5:57DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Joakim Andersson, Damien Brunner · Snap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 14:44DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Jakub Kindl · Deflected, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 17:22VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Alexander Edler, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.37 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:10DETBrian Lashoff: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:59DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:15VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:35VANMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:17VANHenrik Sedin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:17DETBrendan Smith: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:46DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:21DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01DETBrian Lashoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:51DETJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Eaves – Andersson8:25
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader11:53
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Brunner2:09
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Miller5:27
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Kindl12:00
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Ericsson – Smith7:26
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:32
xG 0.51–0.72 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows13:34
xG 1.24–0.57 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Raymond4:38
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Sestito – Pinizzotto2:40
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Booth – Weise4:20
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler16:34
xG 1.09–0.54 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 2–2
- Alberts – Tanev13:29
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison14:34
xG 0.76–0.76 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).