Sun, Mar 17, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 217 | 18 | 330 |
| WSH | 15 | 310 | 110 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:12BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:06WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:45WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 10:28WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 13:27BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 5:30BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–4
- P3 15:05WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:53WSHJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:52BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:11WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:55WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:53BUFVille Leino: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:48WSHSteve Oleksy: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:40BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Leino – Ennis11:33
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson9:15
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Hecht – Stafford – Gerbe7:51
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Porter – Foligno – Flynn10:14
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Weber12:37
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Leopold – Myers3:02
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers12:13
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Fehr – Brouwer12:40
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:28
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ward – Perreault10:45
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle5:53
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Oleksy13:14
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 20–6goals 2–1
- Hillen – Carlson16:34
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Hillen – Oleksy2:05
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).