Mon, Mar 18, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 04 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 130 |
| NYR | 06 | 114 | 011 | 05 | 2 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:09CAREric StaalAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Alexander Semin · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:06NYRDerek StepanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Rick Nash scored
- 2. CAR Jiri Tlusty stopped
- 3. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 4. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 5. NYR J.T. Miller scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:24NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:30NYRSteve Eminger: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:44CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:31CARKevin Westgarth: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:55NYRBrad Richards: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Staal – Bowman7:03
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Wallace – Westgarth4:12
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Staal – Bowman2:41
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:53
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Sanguinetti9:48
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Gleason – Faulk2:20
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain14:37
xG 0.83–1.25 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Hagelin – Stepan12:38
xG 1.48–0.74 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash13:06
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Halpern – Powe – Haley3:49
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Nash – Boyle2:08
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto2:03
xG 0.63–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:42
xG 1.06–0.76 (58%)attempts 22–22goals 0–1
- Eminger – Del Zotto16:05
xG 1.12–0.90 (56%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).