Mon, Mar 18, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 112 | 06 | 230 |
| TBL | 211 | 09 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Dana Tyrell, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:55PHIMax TalbotAssists: Andrej Meszaros · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:03TBLTom PyattAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:21PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 9:25TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Keith Aulie, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:57TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Alex Killorn, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:07TBLSami Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:38PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P1 19:15TBLSami Salo: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:33PHIZac Rinaldo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:31TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P3 7:12TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:19PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek5:13
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Gagne – Talbot – Read9:28
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Couturier2:46
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn8:15
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn12:26
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann12:30
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Gervais – Meszaros12:34
xG 0.14–0.75 (16%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Killorn – Conacher5:04
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Tyrell – Johnson – Palat5:39
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos10:17
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Pyatt2:46
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Carle6:56
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Aulie – Gudas3:59
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Salo – Carle5:16
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).