Wed, Mar 20, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 011 | 211 | 228 |
| TOR | 18 | 310 | 08 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 0:52TORDion PhaneufAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 6:53TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Mark Fraser · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 7:22TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 7:44TBLRadko GudasAssists: Pierre-Cedric Labrie, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 17:02TBLCory ConacherAssists: Tyler Johnson, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:14TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:39TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:29TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:29TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:09TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 10:05TORMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:05TBLCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:45TORJoffrey Lupul: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:07TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
- P3 10:53TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Killorn – Conacher4:19
xG 0.28–0.24 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Tyrell – Johnson – Palat2:29
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stamkos – Conacher2:23
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie5:26
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas6:42
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Aulie – Gudas7:09
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Hedman – Gudas3:08
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kulemin – Kadri10:31
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:21
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Orr – McClement – Komarov5:12
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Frattin9:38
xG 0.18–0.80 (18%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner14:26
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:37
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 12–23goals 3–1
- Franson – Fraser12:25
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).