Thu, Mar 21, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 25 | 111 | 113 | 05 | 1 | 434 |
| BUF | 111 | 28 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:04TORNazem KadriAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Clarke MacArthur · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 18:54BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Steve Ott, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 8:52TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:39BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Kevin Porter, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P2 12:24BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 0:22BUFChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 6:33TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 2. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 5. BUF Drew Stafford scored
- 6. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 7. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 8. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 9. BUF Ville Leino stopped
- 10. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 11. BUF Steve Ott scored
- 12. TOR Clarke MacArthur stopped
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:09TORColton Orr: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:09TORColton Orr: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:09TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:09TORColton Orr: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 8:32BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54TORMark Fraser: Interference2 min
- P2 6:42BUFSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:48TORPhil Kessel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:48BUFJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:30BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39TORClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:57BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:43TORNikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Frattin7:54
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Frattin2:31
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:10
xG 0.49–0.45 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Kadri2:00
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner11:21
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson9:48
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:43
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Foligno – Flynn9:44
xG 0.56–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Ott – Pominville – Hodgson9:34
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott2:27
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis12:14
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Myers11:25
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber12:54
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Leopold – Pysyk11:37
xG 0.07–0.58 (11%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).