Sat, Mar 23, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 09 | 213 | 233 |
| TOR | 14 | 15 | 14 | 313 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58TORNazem KadriAssists: Clarke MacArthur, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:52TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Ryan Hamilton, Matt Frattin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 1:34TORFrazer McLarenGWGAssists: Colton Orr, Jay McClement · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 2:30BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:44BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: David Krejci, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:00TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:00BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:51BOSAaron Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:05BOSMatt Bartkowski: Interference2 min
- P3 7:04TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic14:02
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 24–6goals 0–1
- Campbell – Paille – Peverley2:54
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:37
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:43
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 24–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Ference4:01
xG 0.59–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski12:01
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Ference – Johnson13:47
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – McClement – McLaren3:32
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:08
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Kulemin – Kadri11:44
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Hamilton – Frattin9:19
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner8:04
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:21
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Fraser – Gardiner2:38
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).