Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 26 | 210 | 531 |
| PHI | 012 | 113 | 19 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:14NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:46NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 17:53PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 6:28PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Bruno Gervais · Deflected, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 7:42NYRRick NashAssists: Carl Hagelin, Derek Stepan · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 12:13NYRChris KreiderAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:35PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P2 1:58PHISimon Gagne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Pyatt – Newbury6:31
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Boyle – Kreider10:14
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan15:18
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 20–15goals 3–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Miller12:41
xG 0.70–0.71 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh8:27
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Eminger – McDonagh13:29
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh3:45
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Giroux – Voracek6:56
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn11:01
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gagne – McGinn – Read2:47
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – McGinn6:48
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn14:11
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Coburn – Gervais18:11
xG 0.78–0.68 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Schenn3:38
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).