Wed, Mar 27, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 02 | 212 | 116 | 330 |
| CGY | 214 | 211 | 02 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Roman Cervenka, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.51 xG0–1
- P1 12:01CGYSteve BeginAssists: Tim Jackman, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:29COLJamie McGinnAssists: PA Parenteau, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:41CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 9:14COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Greg Zanon, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 12:41CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 12:34COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:35COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:35CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:07COLChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45CGYBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:03CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P1 17:03COLShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:17COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:17CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:25CGYBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:37COLGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
- P3 11:27CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06CGYAlex Tanguay: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:41
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Palushaj – O'Reilly – Landeskog3:11
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog5:16
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Mitchell – McLeod6:01
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Johnson2:50
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Barrie2:53
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson13:26
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Backlund – Cervenka11:23
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Glencross – Comeau3:41
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stajan – Stempniak3:54
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau7:38
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Butler8:28
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Wideman – Giordano14:35
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Brodie16:22
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).