Fri, Mar 29, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 310 | 17 | 01 | 0 | 425 |
| TBL | 05 | 28 | 29 | 03 | 2 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:50NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 6:41NJDTom KostopoulosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 8:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Keith Aulie · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 10:26TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Richard Panik, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:58NJDAndy GreenePPAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 2:39NJDRyan CarterSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 7:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:44TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Teddy Purcell scored
- 2. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 3. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 4. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:01TBLKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:06TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:06NJDTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:41TBLVictor Hedman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:38TBLKeith Aulie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 1:52NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:20TBLRadko Gudas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 1:34NJDMatt D'Agostini: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter8:41
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac13:33
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Ponikarovsky – Sestito6:40
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Henrique – Loktionov10:34
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:26
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky16:17
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold2:51
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos12:59
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- St. Louis – Stamkos – Conacher2:31
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pouliot – Purcell10:24
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat8:10
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman10:01
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Aulie – Gudas2:35
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sustr3:18
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).