Mon, Apr 8, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 113 | 214 | 334 |
| TOR | 18 | 28 | 112 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: John-Michael Liles, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 11:28TORRyan O'ByrneAssists: Nazem Kadri, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 14:55NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:18TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 2:50NYRRick NashAssists: John Moore, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:00NYRDerek StepanUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 9:39TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:53TORJoe Colborne: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:32TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:32NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:59NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Clowe – Zuccarello14:15
xG 0.90–0.76 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Hagelin5:16
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Asham – Pyatt – Powe3:53
xG 0.08–0.08 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Hagelin2:32
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Moore9:00
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh17:00
xG 1.26–1.07 (54%)attempts 27–12goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak16:04
xG 1.45–0.38 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- McClement – Komarov – Kulemin5:09
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Komarov8:00
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Orr – MacArthur – Kadri2:11
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne12:48
xG 1.64–1.10 (60%)attempts 14–22goals 2–0
- Franson – Fraser16:31
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson17:37
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).