Sun, Apr 21, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 315 | 09 | 04 | 328 |
| TBL | 010 | 111 | 116 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:45CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:46CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 10:07TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Sami Salo, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:16TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:40TBLRichard Panik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 0:00TBLKeith Aulie: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:29TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:29CARNicolas Blanchard: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:41TBLRadko Gudas: Clipping2 min
- P2 9:23CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19CARJiri Tlusty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:22TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty13:32
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 3–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner12:22
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Nash7:49
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Blanchard – Wallace – Skinner3:51
xG 0.00–0.12 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – McBain7:16
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Harrison – McBain2:19
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti3:47
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Killorn – Panik11:49
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie9:25
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos12:19
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Malone – Tyrell8:42
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas10:16
xG 0.61–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Hedman – Gudas3:22
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle14:29
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).