Sat, Apr 27, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 316 | 09 | 330 |
| PIT | 111 | 214 | 510 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:49PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Marc-Andre Fleury · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:10PITJames NealAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 12:30CARKevin WestgarthAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 16:10PITJussi JokinenAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 17:14CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jordan Staal, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 17:51CARKevin WestgarthAssists: Jamie McBain, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 1:36PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 4:14PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 5:24PITBrenden MorrowAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 15:43PITMatt CookeAssists: Brenden Morrow, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–7
- P3 19:11PITJussi JokinenAssists: Jarome Iginla, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:32CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:04PITPaul Martin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:57PITDouglas Murray: Holding2 min
- P2 1:04PITJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:08CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:45CARJared Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56PITBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Westgarth6:36
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Staal7:45
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Staal – Tlusty – Staal2:21
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Dwyer – Staal2:03
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti13:20
xG 0.85–0.80 (52%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Gleason – Sanguinetti3:44
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – McBain7:28
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal7:37
xG 1.32–0.12 (92%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Cooke – Morrow – Sutter9:48
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Iginla – Dupuis – Jokinen8:11
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
- Adams – Glass – Kennedy8:41
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang5:06
xG 0.78–0.30 (73%)attempts 11–2goals 3–1
- Eaton – Letang9:18
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Murray – Martin4:12
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).