Wed, Oct 2, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 09 | 15 | 120 |
| DET | 28 | 010 | 016 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05DETMikael SamuelssonAssists: Cory Emmerton, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:41DETPavel DatsyukGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 12:36BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Brian Flynn · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:32DETHenrik Zetterberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:01DETJonathan Ericsson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 15:17BUFDrew Stafford: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:25DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 5:03DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27BUFTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:25DETDaniel Cleary: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:19BUFThomas Vanek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:36DETMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:45DETCory Emmerton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:02BUFHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Porter – Kaleta5:19
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Flynn – Girgensons – Grigorenko7:45
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis8:35
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Stafford – Hodgson10:37
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 2–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Myers11:17
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk12:13
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Weber – Myers2:33
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:02
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Andersson8:48
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Weiss – Franzen7:39
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Miller – Emmerton5:41
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:44
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser11:08
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith10:50
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).