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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 5, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:22Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 1:39Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  4. P1 1:59Shot by Bodie, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 3:52Shot by Ryan, saved by Reimer
  6. P1 3:53Shot by Ryan, saved by Reimer
  7. P1 4:21Goal by Raymond (Bolland, Bodie)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Bodie, Bolland, Raymond, Gardiner · OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen

  8. P1 6:50Shot by Abbott, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 7:33Goal by Turris (Cowen, Wiercioch)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Bodie, Franson, Kadri, Rielly · OTT Neil, MacArthur, Turris, Wiercioch, Cowen

  10. P1 8:26Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 9:12Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson
  12. P1 10:27Goal by Conacher (Turris, Wiercioch)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Franson, Kadri, Abbott, Rielly · OTT MacArthur, Turris, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  13. P1 12:26Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson
  14. P1 12:36Shot by Bolland, saved by Anderson
  15. P1 13:28Shot by Devane, saved by Anderson
  16. P1 13:32Shot by McClement, saved by Anderson
  17. P1 14:08Franson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, McClement, Franson, Devane, Rielly · OTT Methot, Kassian, Condra, Karlsson, Pageau

  18. P1 14:18Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer4v5
  19. P1 15:32Karlsson: Tripping (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR McClement, Phaneuf, Raymond, Gunnarsson · OTT MacArthur, Turris, Karlsson, Wiercioch, Conacher

  20. P1 16:04Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer4v4
  21. P1 16:34Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson5v4
  22. P1 17:08Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson5v4
  23. P1 17:22Smith: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak · OTT Phillips, Condra, Smith, Wiercioch

  24. P1 17:29Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson5v3
  25. P1 17:33Goal by Kadri (Raymond, Lupul)5v4+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Lupul, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri · OTT Phillips, Greening, Karlsson, Cowen

  26. P1 18:36Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  27. P1 19:04Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  28. P1 19:46Shot by Pageau, saved by Reimer
  29. P1 19:51Shot by Corvo, saved by Reimer
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:16Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  33. P2 0:27Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 0:28Spezza: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Ryan, Karlsson

  35. P2 1:38Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson5v4
  36. P2 1:47Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson5v4
  37. P2 2:49Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 2:53Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  39. P2 4:56Shot by Cowen, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 5:04Shot by Abbott, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 6:39Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer
  42. P2 6:44Shot by Corvo, saved by Reimer
  43. P2 7:35Shot by Bolland, saved by Anderson
  44. P2 8:24Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Reimer
  45. P2 10:11Shot by Pageau, saved by Reimer
  46. P2 10:40Shot by MacArthur, saved by Reimer
  47. P2 10:41Goal by Cowen (Turris, MacArthur)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Franson, Kadri, Abbott, Rielly · OTT MacArthur, Turris, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  48. P2 10:53Shot by Methot, saved by Reimer
  49. P2 10:56Goal by Spezza (Michalek, Ryan)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Ryan, Karlsson

  50. P2 13:23Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  51. P2 14:53Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson
  52. P2 15:10Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  53. P2 15:20Shot by Turris, saved by Bernier
  54. P2 15:56Shot by Spezza, saved by Bernier
  55. P2 16:03Shot by Smith, saved by Bernier
  56. P2 16:25Shot by Neil, saved by Bernier
  57. P2 17:00Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  58. P2 16:59Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson
  59. P2 18:06Spezza: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Bolland, Raymond, Gardiner · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Ryan, Cowen

  60. P2 19:43Goal by Lupul (Raymond, Kadri)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Lupul, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri · OTT Condra, Karlsson, Cowen, Pageau

  61. P2 0:00Smith: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, McClement, Phaneuf, Bolland, Gunnarsson · OTT Neil, Methot, Greening, Smith, Karlsson

  62. P2 0:00Phaneuf: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, McClement, Phaneuf, Bolland, Gunnarsson · OTT Neil, Methot, Greening, Smith, Karlsson

  63. P2 0:00Period end
  64. P3 0:00Period start
  65. P3 1:10Shot by MacArthur, saved by Bernier4v4
  66. P3 1:31Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson4v4
  67. P3 1:50Shot by MacArthur, saved by Bernier4v4
  68. P3 2:40Shot by Michalek, saved by Bernier
  69. P3 2:52Goal by van Riemsdyk (Kessel, Bozak)+24 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Ryan, Karlsson

  70. P3 4:08Shot by Bodie, saved by Anderson
  71. P3 4:46Methot: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Ryan, Karlsson

  72. P3 5:41Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson5v4
  73. P3 7:02Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Bernier
  74. P3 7:14Shot by Bozak, saved by Anderson
  75. P3 9:15Shot by Smith, saved by Bernier
  76. P3 9:37Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson
  77. P3 11:03Shot by MacArthur, saved by Bernier
  78. P3 11:13Shot by Spezza, saved by Bernier
  79. P3 12:05Shot by Phillips, saved by Bernier
  80. P3 13:15Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  81. P3 16:10Shot by Turris, saved by Bernier
  82. P3 16:36Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bernier
  83. P3 18:18Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  84. P3 19:01Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson
  85. P3 19:48Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  86. P3 0:00Period end
  87. OT 0:00Period start
  88. OT 0:30Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson4v4
  89. OT 0:35Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson4v4
  90. OT 0:48Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v4
  91. OT 0:57Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson4v4
  92. OT 3:45Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Bernier4v4
  93. OT 4:18Cowen: Hooking (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR McClement, Phaneuf, Bolland, Gunnarsson · OTT Ryan, Karlsson, Cowen, Pageau

  94. OT 4:52Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson4v3
  95. OT 5:00Period end
  96. SO Period start
  97. SO Goal by Raymond, unassistedother
  98. SO Goal by Bozak, unassistedother
  99. SO Shot by Spezza, saved by Bernierother
  100. SO Period end
  101. SO Final