Sat, Oct 5, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 00 | 06 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 316 |
| CHI | 012 | 213 | 012 | 02 | 0 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:59CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Bryan Bickell, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 9:14CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Corey Crawford · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 10:08TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 11:51TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. TBL Valtteri Filppula scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 5. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:15TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 3:05TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:25TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:20CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:26TBLValtteri Filppula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Thompson – Labrie7:56
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn5:45
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat2:47
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Panik6:32
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carle – Sustr2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:18
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:01
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Toews – Kane11:46
xG 1.56–0.18 (90%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Shaw – Saad7:47
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Hossa – Sharp11:58
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Kruger – Shaw – Saad2:30
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook17:34
xG 1.49–0.24 (86%)attempts 28–8goals 0–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:18
xG 0.89–0.19 (82%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Kostka – Leddy11:10
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).