Tue, Oct 8, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 115 | 18 | 233 |
| TOR | 012 | 17 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:12TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Carter Ashton · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 16:39COLCory SarichAssists: Steve Downie, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 2:30COLPA ParenteauGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:26COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:22TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 19:53TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:32TORTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:32COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:08COLCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:25TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog11:52
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – McLeod4:53
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon9:04
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene14:39
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie10:50
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit15:42
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Hejda – Johnson16:50
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – Ashton – Kadri7:55
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Bolland – Raymond12:55
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Bodie – Smith – Devane3:50
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:42
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Gardiner2:10
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner13:07
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:50
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).