Tue, Oct 8, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 110 | 112 | 12 | 334 |
| BUF | 03 | 27 | 013 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:09BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 13:35TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 18:34BUFJamie McBainPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 5:43TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 1:50TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Eric Brewer, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:22BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:22TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:27BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 12:58TBLVictor Hedman: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:58BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:00BUFTyler Ennis: Holding2 min
- P2 10:19TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:23BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:23TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:47TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:11TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:10TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 5:21BUFThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Johnson – Palat10:44
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:55
xG 0.53–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Pyatt – Killorn9:26
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Thompson – Killorn2:06
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:44
xG 0.81–0.17 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Aulie8:48
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas2:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Kaleta – Scott2:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Flynn – Girgensons – Grigorenko5:41
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Flynn – Girgensons6:00
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno14:25
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Pysyk13:49
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Myers14:53
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:25
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).