Thu, Oct 10, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 18 | 17 | 221 |
| TBL | 29 | 210 | 39 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 13:54TBLSteven StamkosSHAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 0:59FLABrad BoyesPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 11:39TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Matt Carle, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 15:51TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Alex Killorn, Ben Bishop · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 3:48FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Scott Gomez, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 6:38TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Matt Carle, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 9:14TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Teddy Purcell, Sami Salo · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 12:25TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Sami Salo, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.03 xG2–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:12FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:55TBLRichard Panik: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:40TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Interference2 min
- P2 5:18FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45FLAJesse Winchester: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:11FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:11TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57FLAMarcel Goc: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56FLAJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:22TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Holding2 min
- P3 16:44TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44FLAScottie Upshall: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:45TBLMatt Carle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Versteeg – Huberdeau5:09
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Matthias – Winchester5:39
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Upshall – Crabb4:38
xG 0.02–0.09 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Goc – Versteeg – Huberdeau7:06
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Gilbert9:48
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov11:28
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Whitney – Gudbranson10:46
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Johnson – Palat6:08
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:53
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Panik12:02
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie6:08
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:03
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Brewer – Sustr13:09
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas13:02
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).