Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 26 | 117 | 28 | 00 | 531 |
| TOR | 210 | 14 | 210 | 12 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21EDMRyan SmythAssists: Mark Arcobello · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:47TORNazem KadriAssists: Mason Raymond, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:26TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 18:10EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Anton Belov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 1:02EDMBoyd GordonAssists: David Perron, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 5:20TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri, David Broll · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 5:29EDMJordan EberleAssists: Mark Arcobello, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:55TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 11:27EDMRyan SmythAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.20 xG5–4
- P3 19:29TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 2:09TORDave BollandGWGAssists: Cody Franson, Mason Raymond · Snap, 0.26 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:41EDMDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28EDMDavid Perron: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29TORColton Orr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56EDMJesse Joensuu: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:55TORDave Bolland: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:40TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Eberle – Arcobello8:51
xG 1.15–0.14 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins15:56
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Gazdic – Acton4:45
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Joensuu – Perron10:55
xG 0.13–0.56 (19%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov10:16
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Ference – Schultz14:16
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Petry – Belov2:59
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- McClement – Bolland – Leivo2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Broll6:42
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Bolland – Raymond – Leivo7:08
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Orr – McClement – Ashton4:23
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:37
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Ranger – Gardiner12:21
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:21
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).