Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 6, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 214 | 212 | 213 | 639 |
| STL | 06 | 010 | 211 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:25SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Demers, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 8:34SJSTommy WingelsGWGAssists: James Sheppard, Andrew Desjardins · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 17:13SJSScott HannanAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 5:06SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–0
- P3 7:23STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 12:28STLRoman PolakAssists: Derek Roy, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–2
- P3 17:06SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.32 xG6–2
Penalties (21)
- P1 5:22STLMaxim Lapierre: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 5:22STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 5:22SJSAndrew Desjardins: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:22SJSMatt Pelech: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 5:22SJSAndrew Desjardins: Instigator2 min
- P1 5:22STLMaxim Lapierre: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P1 5:22SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:22STLMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:22STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:22SJSMatt Pelech: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:34SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:55STLJay Bouwmeester: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:07SJSBrent Burns: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:43STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:43SJSJason Demers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:43STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:17STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:37SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 19:18SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:50STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P3 16:30STLChris Stewart: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kennedy – Couture7:58
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto6:11
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun8:40
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin5:58
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Sobotka – Stewart4:48
xG 0.83–0.10 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Oshie – Stewart2:24
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart4:20
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:37
xG 0.68–0.75 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak9:54
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Leopold – Shattenkirk12:01
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:15
xG 0.39–1.06 (27%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).