Thu, Oct 17, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 013 | 12 | 126 |
| TBL | 110 | 07 | 213 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 11:05MINMikko KoivuAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 14:56TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Matt Carle, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:42TBLSami SaloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:19MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P2 1:59MINJared Spurgeon: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:22TBLBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:39TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:06MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P3 6:06MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:41MINMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:41MINMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:57TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00TBLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00MINZenon Konopka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter11:18
xG 1.07–0.61 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine7:00
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell5:47
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund10:41
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon11:41
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin16:11
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Stoner – Dumba8:33
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Johnson – Palat9:43
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Connolly6:24
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:25
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Panik8:22
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Gudas3:25
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman10:56
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer2:00
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).