Sat, Oct 19, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 08 | 16 | 321 |
| OTT | 015 | 010 | 111 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:29EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 14:12OTTChris NeilAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Patrick Wiercioch · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:25EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:19OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:57OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- P1 19:21EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:27OTTJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:08OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:04EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:24EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Interference2 min
- P2 19:50EDMNail Yakupov: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:50OTTColin Greening: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:40OTTMilan Michalek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:40OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P3 6:03EDMLadislav Smid: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Acton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Perron – Arcobello2:36
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Arcobello2:38
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov4:29
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon5:48
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz2:15
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ference – Grebeshkov5:35
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Petry – Belov2:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith4:11
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Neil – MacArthur – Smith2:18
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher6:21
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris5:28
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen11:10
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Wiercioch6:33
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Phillips – Gryba6:23
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).