Mon, Oct 28, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 313 | 111 | 05 | 429 |
| BUF | 18 | 28 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Lane MacDermid, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 3:26BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Cody Hodgson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:40DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 17:52DALTyler SeguinAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 10:55DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Erik Cole · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 12:54BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P2 17:17BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:48BUFSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:48BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:22BUFMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P2 11:36DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:24DALBrenden Dillon: Kneeing2 min
- P3 1:24BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:24DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:05DALVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:05DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:05BUFMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Peverley – Nichushkin10:42
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin11:07
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Roussel – MacDermid6:23
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin14:05
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn15:49
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Daley13:02
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Robidas – Dillon13:51
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Leino – Foligno12:27
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Hodgson – Ennis14:10
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- McCormick – Stafford – Grigorenko4:56
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons10:14
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk15:30
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Ristolainen12:40
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Zadorov14:18
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).