Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 15 | 014 | 128 |
| NYR | 112 | 215 | 211 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Brad Richards · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:16NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 15:54NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
- P2 19:23CARAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 9:09NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 14:37NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:49NYRTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:00CARNathan Gerbe: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:26CARPatrick Dwyer: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:25NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:25CARManny Malhotra: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:10NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:36CARRyan Murphy: Clipping2 min
- P2 15:29CARManny Malhotra: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56NYRDerek Dorsett: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:56NYRDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Staal10:45
xG 1.47–0.33 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Sutter – Bowman5:53
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash6:54
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Gerbe – Lindholm10:45
xG 0.08–0.86 (8%)attempts 2–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy6:38
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk13:14
xG 1.14–0.96 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 0–3
- Hainsey – Bellemore10:23
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Pouliot – Hagelin12:32
xG 0.85–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:17
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Mashinter – Miller2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dorsett – Mashinter3:00
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman15:30
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore14:04
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:47
xG 0.85–1.54 (36%)attempts 17–25goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).