Fri, Nov 8, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 2, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 111 | 09 | 227 |
| ANA | 422 | 212 | 012 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 9:53ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Dustin Penner, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 13:26BUFMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Cody McCormick, Drew Stafford · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 16:29ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 19:40ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 4:53ANADustin PennerAssists: Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–5
- P2 13:09BUFMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Corey Tropp, Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P2 18:53ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Rickard Rakell, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:57BUFNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22BUFCody McCormick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P3 0:52ANALuca Sbisa: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Stafford – Foligno10:08
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McCormick – Tropp – Grigorenko3:48
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons14:57
xG 0.76–0.78 (49%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- McCormick – Stafford – Grigorenko6:03
xG 0.27–0.68 (29%)attempts 2–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Myers16:55
xG 0.62–0.73 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Zadorov18:12
xG 0.68–1.13 (37%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- McBain – Ristolainen15:59
xG 0.54–2.04 (21%)attempts 18–26goals 2–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner11:32
xG 1.41–0.13 (91%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Rakell13:23
xG 1.22–0.47 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Selanne – Perreault – Smith-Pelly13:26
xG 1.11–0.45 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Bonino – Palmieri – Etem11:32
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler13:57
xG 1.37–0.33 (81%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm18:01
xG 1.63–0.92 (64%)attempts 24–19goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa16:01
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).