Thu, Nov 14, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 19 | 08 | 125 |
| TBL | 28 | 210 | 12 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:25TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: JT Brown, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 3:16TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:51TBLAlex KillornAssists: Martin St. Louis, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–4
- P2 16:07ANAEmerson EtemPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 2:05TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Richard Panik, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:31TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:31ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:14TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:49ANADaniel Winnik: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:54TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:31ANARickard Rakell: Holding2 min
- P2 13:29TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:29ANATeemu Selanne: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:29TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 14:55ANAKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:25TBLOndrej Palat: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 5:29TBLRichard Panik: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:29ANABen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Rakell7:34
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Winnik – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly8:11
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Etem12:34
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Palmieri – Rakell2:52
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Fowler15:29
xG 0.35–0.35 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:53
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa14:25
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Purcell – Brown12:16
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Connolly10:01
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson8:29
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat10:33
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio11:03
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr11:40
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Carle – Hedman2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).