Sat, Nov 16, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 012 | 217 | 235 |
| TOR | 210 | 17 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Cody Franson, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:35TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 11:49TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Paul Ranger · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 2:15BUFJamie McBainAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 6:11BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Cody Hodgson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:56TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Trevor Smith, David Clarkson · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 13:27BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11TORJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:43TORPeter Holland: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:15TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:34TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:34TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:34TORFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34TORFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34TORFrazer McLaren: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:34BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34BUFJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:34BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:34TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:14BUFVille Leino: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Flynn – Girgensons9:16
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- McCormick – Scott – Tropp5:22
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Ennis11:43
xG 0.52–0.77 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Moulson – Stafford – Hodgson16:19
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Pysyk15:43
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Myers13:45
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- McBain – Ristolainen14:35
xG 0.25–0.70 (26%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Clarkson – Smith15:19
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- McClement – Raymond – Kulemin11:41
xG 0.44–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Smithson – Orr – McLaren5:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Holland9:34
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Fraser3:54
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:13
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner3:47
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).