Fri, Nov 22, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 07 | 211 | 02 | 2 | 326 |
| CGY | 03 | 211 | 15 | 05 | 3 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14FLATom GilbertAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 9:00CGYJoe ColborneAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:04CGYSven BaertschiPPAssists: Joe Colborne, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 5:40CGYBlair JonesAssists: Lance Bouma, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:02FLAJimmy HayesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 14:01FLAMarcel GocAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. CGY Jiri Hudler scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. CGY Blair Jones stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes scored
- 7. CGY Michael Cammalleri scored
- 8. FLA Tomas Fleischmann scored
- 9. CGY Lee Stempniak stopped
- 10. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 11. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 12. FLA Jimmy Hayes stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:19CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:34CGYShane O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:43CGYTJ Brodie: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:10FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26FLAJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:18FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:18CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:39CGYShane O'Brien: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:49
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Gomez – Goc – Bergenheim11:27
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes5:06
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Barkov9:05
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson13:55
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Gilroy – Kulikov3:29
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Mottau – Gilroy5:54
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Baertschi – Monahan8:01
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak13:27
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 0–3
- McGrattan – Jones – Backlund2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hudler – Jones – Monahan3:12
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie15:56
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Smid – Butler5:16
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Smid8:28
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).