Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 011 | 211 | 429 |
| DET | 117 | 06 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23DETDarren HelmPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jakub Kindl · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 14:33OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Bobby Ryan, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:44OTTChris NeilAssists: Cory Conacher, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:08DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:51OTTBobby RyanPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 15:58OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 11:32OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:16OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:42OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P2 7:32DETDaniel Cleary: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:54OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:54DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:02DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:57DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:36DETKyle Quincey: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:14OTTJared Cowen: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:42OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:59OTTClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P3 12:59DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:09DETNiklas Kronwall: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:26DETJimmy Howard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:16
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad8:39
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Conacher7:38
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Greening – Condra – Grant5:34
xG 0.01–0.33 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Karlsson13:02
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Phillips – Borowiecki9:01
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Cowen9:45
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Miller – Andersson4:50
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Weiss5:57
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist7:38
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Helm – Tatar4:13
xG 0.12–0.23 (36%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith8:54
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Kindl – Lashoff6:46
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:23
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).