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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 23, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:23Shot by Cleary, saved by Lehner
  3. P1 0:40Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  4. P1 1:08Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner
  5. P1 1:56Shot by Quincey, saved by Lehner
  6. P1 2:06Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  7. P1 2:16Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  8. P1 5:03Shot by Miller, saved by Lehner
  9. P1 7:57Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Lehner
  10. P1 8:33Shot by Spezza, saved by Howard
  11. P1 9:26Shot by Miller, saved by Lehner
  12. P1 9:35Shot by Cleary, saved by Lehner
  13. P1 10:19Shot by Ryan, saved by Howard
  14. P1 10:47Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  15. P1 11:20Shot by Smith, saved by Howard
  16. P1 11:29Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Lehner
  17. P1 11:32Neil: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Abdelkader, Helm, Tatar · OTT Phillips, Neil, Smith, Borowiecki, Conacher

  18. P1 12:28Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner5v4
  19. P1 13:23Goal by Helm (Tatar, Kindl)5v4+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Samuelsson, Kindl, Helm, Nyquist, Tatar · OTT Michalek, Methot, Condra, Karlsson

  20. P1 14:33Goal by MacArthur (Ryan, Wiercioch)+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Ericsson, Quincey, Franzen, Nyquist · OTT MacArthur, Methot, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  21. P1 15:26Shot by Michalek, saved by Howard
  22. P1 15:44Goal by Neil (Conacher, Smith)+16 pts WP

    On ice: DET Quincey, Abdelkader, Helm, Smith, Tatar · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  23. P1 16:35Shot by Andersson, saved by Lehner
  24. P1 16:44Shot by Turris, saved by Howard
  25. P1 17:19Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  26. P1 18:44Conacher: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kindl, Abdelkader, Helm, Lashoff, Tatar · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  27. P1 19:20Shot by Kronwall, saved by Lehner5v4
  28. P1 0:00Period end
  29. P2 0:00Period start
  30. P2 1:10Shot by Tatar, saved by Lehner
  31. P2 2:58Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Lehner
  32. P2 3:16Shot by Nyquist, saved by Lehner
  33. P2 3:16Cowen: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Quincey, Franzen, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  34. P2 3:42Phillips: Holding (2 min)6v4

    On ice: DET Samuelsson, Zetterberg, Kindl, Helm, Nyquist, Tatar · OTT Phillips, MacArthur, Turris, Borowiecki

  35. P2 5:50Shot by Weiss, saved by Lehner
  36. P2 6:58Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Lehner
  37. P2 7:32Cleary: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: DET Cleary, Datsyuk, Weiss, Smith, Lashoff · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  38. P2 8:55Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Howard4v5
  39. P2 9:37Shot by Karlsson, saved by Howard
  40. P2 9:42Shot by Smith, saved by Howard
  41. P2 9:54Neil: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Quincey, Franzen, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Neil, Methot, Smith, Cowen, Conacher

  42. P2 9:54Smith: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Quincey, Franzen, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Neil, Methot, Smith, Cowen, Conacher

  43. P2 9:58Shot by Karlsson, saved by Howard
  44. P2 11:15Shot by Grant, saved by Howard
  45. P2 12:02Tatar: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Abdelkader, Helm, Tatar · OTT MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Wiercioch, Cowen

  46. P2 12:10Shot by Spezza, saved by Howard4v5
  47. P2 12:31Shot by Methot, saved by Howard4v5
  48. P2 14:10Shot by Turris, saved by Howard
  49. P2 14:23Shot by Michalek, saved by Howard
  50. P2 14:32Shot by Ryan, saved by Howard
  51. P2 17:37Shot by Smith, saved by Lehner
  52. P2 18:27Shot by Grant, saved by Howard
  53. P2 19:43Spezza: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Quincey, Abdelkader, Helm, Smith, Tatar · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Karlsson, Zibanejad

  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:29Borowiecki: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Cleary, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen · OTT Phillips, MacArthur, Turris, Borowiecki

  57. P3 0:57Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Lehner5v3
  58. P3 1:08Goal by Datsyuk (Kronwall, Zetterberg)5v3+23 pts WP

    On ice: DET Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen, Nyquist · OTT Phillips, Grant, Cowen

  59. P3 1:57Helm: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Samuelsson, Datsyuk, Franzen, Kindl, Helm · OTT MacArthur, Methot, Karlsson, Grant

  60. P3 2:22Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Lehner4v4
  61. P3 2:36Quincey: High sticking double minor (4 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Ericsson, Quincey · OTT Methot, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Borowiecki

  62. P3 3:37Shot by MacArthur, saved by Howard3v5
  63. P3 3:51Goal by Ryan (Karlsson, Spezza)3v5+24 pts WP

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Kronwall, Ericsson · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  64. P3 4:12Shot by Neil, saved by Howard4v5
  65. P3 4:16Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Howard4v5
  66. P3 5:38Shot by MacArthur, saved by Howard4v5
  67. P3 6:25Shot by Michalek, saved by Howard4v5
  68. P3 8:13Shot by Quincey, saved by Lehner
  69. P3 8:29Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Lehner
  70. P3 9:14Cowen: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Quincey, Franzen, Helm, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Wiercioch, Cowen, Zibanejad

  71. P3 9:42Borowiecki: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Samuelsson, Ericsson, Helm, Nyquist, Tatar · OTT Phillips, Condra, Grant, Borowiecki

  72. P3 9:58Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Lehner5v3
  73. P3 10:29Shot by Kronwall, saved by Lehner5v3
  74. P3 10:37Shot by Kronwall, saved by Lehner5v3
  75. P3 11:04Shot by Kronwall, saved by Lehner5v3
  76. P3 11:13Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner5v3
  77. P3 11:28Shot by Ericsson, saved by Lehner5v4
  78. P3 11:59Shot by Datsyuk, saved by Lehner
  79. P3 12:24Shot by Nyquist, saved by Lehner
  80. P3 12:59MacArthur: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Weiss, Ericsson, Andersson, Tatar · OTT MacArthur, Methot, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  81. P3 12:59Ericsson: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Weiss, Ericsson, Andersson, Tatar · OTT MacArthur, Methot, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  82. P3 14:09Kronwall: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Franzen, Nyquist, Lashoff · OTT Phillips, Ryan, Smith, Karlsson

  83. P3 14:44Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Howard3v4
  84. P3 14:51Shot by Spezza, saved by Howard3v4
  85. P3 15:15Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Howard4v5
  86. P3 15:57Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Howard4v5
  87. P3 15:58Goal by MacArthur (Wiercioch, Karlsson)4v5+9 pts WP

    On ice: DET Ericsson, Miller, Andersson, Lashoff · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Turris, Karlsson, Wiercioch

  88. P3 16:22Nyquist: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Franzen, Helm, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Phillips, Neil, Smith, Borowiecki, Conacher

  89. P3 18:26Howard: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Quincey, Abdelkader, Helm, Smith, Nyquist · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Cowen, Conacher

  90. P3 0:00Period end
  91. P3 0:00Final