Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 6, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 219 | 311 | 641 |
| WSH | 318 | 03 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10WSHEric FehrAssists: Michael Latta · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:28OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Clarke MacArthur · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:06WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 14:53WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Joel Ward, Jason Chimera · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 6:36OTTChris PhillipsPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 10:36OTTColin GreeningAssists: Marc Methot, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 6:05OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Chris Phillips · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 16:33WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Joel Ward · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 17:37OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Chris Neil · Snap, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 19:47OTTBobby RyanENUnassisted · Snap, 0.59 xG6–4
Penalties (21)
- P1 9:33OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:35WSHMike Green: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:38OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:07OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:07WSHTyson Strachan: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:07OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P1 17:07WSHTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:07WSHTyson Strachan: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:06WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P1 18:06OTTCory Conacher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:21WSHAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:21OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:17WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:51OTTCory Conacher: Interference2 min
- P2 11:51WSHAaron Volpatti: Charging2 min
- P2 13:23WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:34WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:04OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P3 8:54WSHMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:30OTTZack Smith: Kneeing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:46
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Condra – Grant – Conacher2:17
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Grant3:06
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Conacher3:16
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wiercioch – Cowen8:45
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:25
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Phillips – Corvo13:57
xG 0.66–1.20 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Grabovski – Brouwer8:14
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:39
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Laich9:44
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:55
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt11:50
xG 0.98–0.73 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson12:26
xG 0.83–0.75 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Strachan – Schmidt4:24
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).