Wed, Nov 27, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 05 | 315 | 330 |
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 12 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:32CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Lance Bouma · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 2:05CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 9:42CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 10:38CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 19:42CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:53CGYMichael Cammalleri: Holding2 min
- P1 5:14CGYTJ Brodie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:59CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:59CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:23CHIBrandon Pirri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Pirri – Shaw6:51
xG 0.44–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews14:11
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Kane – Shaw – Saad3:11
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Handzus – Kane – Saad7:10
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson18:22
xG 1.08–0.12 (90%)attempts 25–7goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Leddy12:16
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook16:04
xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak12:31
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Colborne – Bouma12:51
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Jones – Backlund4:38
xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan11:49
xG 0.07–0.90 (7%)attempts 5–20goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell3:21
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Smid – Brodie2:08
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid3:57
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).