Fri, Nov 29, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 15 | 010 | 00 | 224 |
| BUF | 07 | 211 | 09 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:57BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Ville Leino, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 10:23TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Trevor Smith · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:50BUFLuke AdamAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:38BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:01TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 6:08TORPaul Ranger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:28TORCody Franson: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:28TORCody Franson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28BUFMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:09BUFHenrik Tallinder: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28TORPaul Ranger: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:49
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Smithson – Orr – Ashton3:56
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri11:17
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Kulemin – Smith9:34
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner2:45
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:06
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser11:27
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Adam – Girgensons9:04
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Ott – D'Agostini – Leino11:30
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Scott – Foligno – Flynn7:07
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Moulson – Stafford – Hodgson15:50
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer15:00
xG 0.80–0.54 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Myers18:16
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Pysyk13:48
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).