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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 29, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:43Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  3. P1 2:12Goal by Kessel (Bozak, Gardiner)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Weber, Myers, Ennis, Adam, Girgensons · TOR Ranger, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak

  4. P1 3:31Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Miller
  5. P1 3:55Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  6. P1 6:24Shot by D'Agostini, saved by Reimer
  7. P1 8:04Shot by Foligno, saved by Reimer
  8. P1 10:51Shot by Raymond, saved by Miller
  9. P1 11:38Shot by Pysyk, saved by Reimer
  10. P1 12:39Shot by McClement, saved by Miller
  11. P1 13:05Shot by Raymond, saved by Miller
  12. P1 13:52Shot by Raymond, saved by Miller
  13. P1 14:47Shot by Weber, saved by Reimer
  14. P1 14:53Shot by Weber, saved by Reimer
  15. P1 15:54Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Miller
  16. P1 16:01van Riemsdyk: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Tallinder, Ott, D'Agostini, Hodgson, Myers · TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, Smith, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson

  17. P1 18:43Shot by Adam, saved by Reimer
  18. P1 19:49Shot by Hodgson, saved by Reimer
  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 0:43Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  22. P2 2:54Shot by Kadri, saved by Miller
  23. P2 3:22Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Reimer
  24. P2 4:31Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Miller
  25. P2 6:08Ranger: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Ennis, Adam, Girgensons · TOR Ranger, Clarkson, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri

  26. P2 7:57Goal by Moulson (Leino, Myers)5v4+19 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Moulson, Leino, Hodgson, Myers · TOR Smithson, Franson, Fraser, van Riemsdyk

  27. P2 7:54Shot by Myers, saved by Reimer5v4
  28. P2 9:34Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  29. P2 10:23Goal by Kulemin (Smith)+20 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Scott, Foligno, Flynn · TOR McClement, Kulemin, Smith, Gunnarsson, Gardiner

  30. P2 12:22Shot by Stafford, saved by Reimer
  31. P2 12:28Franson: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Moulson, Stafford, Hodgson · TOR Clarkson, Raymond, Franson, Fraser, Kadri

  32. P2 12:28Franson: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Moulson, Stafford, Hodgson · TOR Clarkson, Raymond, Franson, Fraser, Kadri

  33. P2 12:28Moulson: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Moulson, Stafford, Hodgson · TOR Clarkson, Raymond, Franson, Fraser, Kadri

  34. P2 13:21Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Miller5v4
  35. P2 14:34Shot by D'Agostini, saved by Reimer
  36. P2 18:26Shot by Weber, saved by Reimer
  37. P2 18:50Goal by Adam (Girgensons, Ehrhoff)+22 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Ennis, Adam, Girgensons · TOR McClement, Ranger, Fraser, Kulemin, Smith

  38. P2 18:49Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 19:06Shot by Myers, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 19:28Shot by Tallinder, saved by Reimer
  41. P2 0:00Period end
  42. P3 0:00Period start
  43. P3 1:09Tallinder: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Tallinder, Ott, Sulzer, Stafford, Leino · TOR Ranger, Clarkson, Raymond, Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri

  44. P3 2:16Shot by Raymond, saved by Miller4v5
  45. P3 3:39Shot by McClement, saved by Miller
  46. P3 4:05Shot by Kulemin, saved by Miller
  47. P3 7:51Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  48. P3 8:14Shot by D'Agostini, saved by Reimer
  49. P3 8:19Shot by Myers, saved by Reimer
  50. P3 8:25Shot by Sulzer, saved by Reimer
  51. P3 9:38Shot by Clarkson, saved by Miller
  52. P3 10:22Shot by Flynn, saved by Reimer
  53. P3 10:57Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Miller
  54. P3 11:07Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  55. P3 11:26Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Miller
  56. P3 12:13Shot by Raymond, saved by Miller
  57. P3 13:08Shot by Pysyk, saved by Reimer
  58. P3 13:41Shot by Adam, saved by Reimer
  59. P3 14:05Shot by Sulzer, saved by Reimer
  60. P3 16:07Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  61. P3 17:07Shot by Kessel, saved by Miller
  62. P3 18:28Ranger: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ott, D'Agostini, Weber, Leino, Hodgson, Pysyk · TOR McClement, Ranger, Kulemin, Smith, Gardiner

  63. P3 18:58Shot by Hodgson, saved by Reimer5v4
  64. P3 0:00Period end
  65. OT 0:00Period start
  66. OT 0:24Shot by Hodgson, saved by Reimer4v3
  67. OT 0:38Goal by Ehrhoff (Myers, Leino)4v4+51 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, D'Agostini, Leino, Myers · TOR Smithson, Ranger, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson

  68. OT 0:38Period end
  69. OT 0:38Final