Thu, Dec 5, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 012 | 210 | 331 |
| BUF | 07 | 07 | 114 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 8:29NYRBrad RichardsPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 14:47NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 17:54BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:02NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 4:34BUFMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:56NYRBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Zuccarello11:11
xG 0.56–0.12 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Boyle – Pouliot8:22
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Hagelin10:53
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:00
xG 0.48–0.87 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:31
xG 1.01–0.51 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore11:36
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman18:19
xG 0.48–0.96 (33%)attempts 19–22goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – D'Agostini – Leino14:41
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Ennis – Adam – Foligno3:09
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCormick – Scott – Foligno4:32
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Ennis – Adam – Girgensons9:55
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers14:04
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Pysyk14:35
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain19:18
xG 0.57–0.99 (37%)attempts 18–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).