Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 118 | 08 | 134 |
| TBL | 15 | 17 | 110 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Ondrej Palat, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:11OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:19TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 10:56TBLValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:06OTTZack Smith: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:21TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:45TBLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:46TBLKeith Aulie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:33OTTErik Condra: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:02OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:23TBLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:47OTTJason Spezza: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith9:09
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – MacArthur – Condra8:53
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman9:32
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad10:28
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson12:33
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen3:53
xG 0.07–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Cowen8:20
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Purcell – Brown9:14
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Kucherov10:48
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat10:24
xG 0.44–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Tyrell3:25
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr7:36
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Salo – Taormina3:43
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Salo – Aulie5:40
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).